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Everything you need to know about the coronavirus
The Verge is regularly updating this page with all the latest news and analysis.
You can see where and how many cases of the illness have been reported in this map. The majority of the illnesses were initially in China, where the virus first emerged, but the rate of new cases there has nearly stopped. There are now many times more cases outside of China than there were inside of it at the height of the outbreak. There are large outbreaks of the disease in multiple places, including Spain, Italy, and the United States, which currently has the worst outbreak of any country in the world.
As this important story continues to unfold, our hope is to answer all of your questions as people work to understand this virus and contain its spread.
At the end of December, public health officials from China informed the World Health Organization that they had a problem: an unknown, new virus was causing pneumonia-like illness in the city of Wuhan. They quickly determined that it was a coronavirus and that it was rapidly spreading through and outside of Wuhan-Coronaviruses are common in animals of all kinds, and they sometimes can evolve into forms that can infect humans. Since the start of the century, two other coronaviruses have jumped to humans, causing the SARS outbreak in 2002 and the MERS outbreak in 2012.
Scientists think this new virus first became capable of jumping to humans at the beginning of December. It originally seemed like the virus first infected people at a seafood market in Wuhan and spread from there. But one analysis of early cases of the illness, published January 24th, found that the first patient to get sick did not have any contact with the market. Experts are still trying to trace the outbreak back to its source-The type of animal the virus originated from is not clear, although one analysis found that the genetic sequence of the new virus is 96 percent identical to one coronavirus found in bats. Both SARS and MERS originated in bats.
The virus is now spreading all over the world-Although it originated in China, the country took aggressive action at the start of the outbreak, shutting down transportation in some cities and suspending public gatherings. Officials isolated sick people and aggressively tracked their contacts, and had a dedicated network of hospitals to test for the virus. The number of new infections reported in China has been declining, which indicated to WHO officials that transmission was slowing down — and that their containment measures were working.
Now, the WHO says, the epicenter of the pandemic is in Europe, which now has more new cases reported each day than China did at the height of its outbreak. In the US, though, the outbreak is accelerating faster than anywhere else in the world. New York City has the highest number of cases in the country. Previous US hot spots included a nursing home in Washington state, New Rochelle, New York, and the Boston area, where disease spread at a conference.
It takes information about both how severe an illness is and how easily it can spread to determine how “bad” it can be. Epidemiologists often use this tool to assess new strains of the flu, for example:
If an illness isn’t very severe (and kills only a small percentage of people), but it’s highly transmissible, it can still be devastating. An easily-transmitted illness that kills a small percentage of the people it infects can still cause a lot of deaths, precisely because so many people get sick.
The WHO named the illness caused by the coronavirus COVID-19 — “co” and “vi” for coronavirus, “d” for disease, and “19” for the year when the disease emerged.
COVID-19 is a serious illness, and it’s more dangerous than the flu. One CDC projection suggests that between 160 to 214 million people will be infected in the US, and that between 200,000 and 1.7 million could die. That doesn’t take into account actions taken to slow down the outbreak, though.
The symptoms of COVID-19 have ranged from mild, like those in a cold, to severe. Around 80 percent of confirmed cases are mild and don’t require hospitalization — at least, 80 percent of the cases that we know about. It’s still possible that there are more mild cases of the illness that haven’t been flagged, which would shrink the percentage of cases that are severe. In about 15 percent of people, the illness is severe enough that they need to be hospitalized, and about 5 percent of cases are critical. It appears around half of the people with critical cases of the illness die from it.So far, experts say that around 1 or 2 percent of people who get sick with COVID-19 will die, though it’s too early to say for sure how often it is fatal. Those numbers may change as the outbreak progresses, and will be different in different places, depending on the demographics of the population. By comparison, 14 to 15 percent of people who got sick from SARS died.
Different groups of people, though, are more at risk of having a severe case of the illness or of dying from it. Most deaths in this outbreak have been in older people and those who have underlying health issues, like heart disease, hypertension, and diabetes. In that group, people are more at risk of dying. Around 14 percent of people over the age of 80 who get sick will die, for example.
The virus is moving rapidly around the world. The new coronavirus spreads quickly in contained environments, like on the cruise ship the Diamond Princess.
Early evidence suggested that, like other coronaviruses, the virus jumps between people who are in very close contact with each other. It also probably spreads when an infected person sneezes or coughs. Coughs and sneezes produce little droplets of mucus and saliva. If these droplets make it into another person’s eyes, mouth or nose, they can get sick. The viruses in those little droplets can also fall onto surfaces, like tables or doorknobs — if someone touches that surface and touches their eyes, mouth or nose, they can also get sick.
Early research shows that the virus can linger on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for a few days, which is why it’s important to clean countertops, doorknobs, and other places people touch regularly. The virus doesn’t appear to stay infectious on cardboard for longer than a day — so packages should be safe.
Scientists are still trying to figure out how long tiny droplets containing virus could linger in the air if a sick person coughs, sneezes, or talks. They know that certain procedures done in the hospital can spray the virus into the air, where it can linger for a few hours, which is why it’s so important for doctors and nurses doing those procedures have masks that can filter it out. But it’s still not clear how much the virus stays in the air normally, without those artificial interventions.
We also don’t know when people with COVID-19 become contagious, or how long being contagious lasts. One study of nine people in Germany with mild cases of the illness found that they had high levels of the virus in their throats early on in the course of the disease before they felt very sick. That may mean that people can spread the virus before they know they have it.
Preliminary research suggests that people without symptoms or mild, almost unnoticeable symptoms may be driving the epidemic. That will make containing the spread of the virus more complicated.
Chinese officials have said that they have seen cases where people with the virus infected others before they started showing symptoms. Research out of China showed that people without symptoms still have high levels of the virus in their throats and noses, so they may be passing it along if they cough or sneeze. In one case, a family in Anyang, China appeared to be sickened by an asymptomatic family member, according to a study in The Journal of the American Medical Association. A cluster of cases in Massachusetts appears to have been driven by people who spread the virus while they were asymptomatic.
Each sick person will go on to infect, on average, between 1.4 and 2.5 additional people, the WHO says, though that’s an early estimate. Other teams of researchers have published their own estimates, with most saying a sick person will infect an average of around two or three people.
Those numbers are called the virus’s R0 (pronounced “R-naught”). The R0 is the mathematical representation of how well an infection might be able to spread. The higher the number, the easier the disease is to spread. For comparison, the R0 for SARS was between two and five. But that doesn’t mean each sick person will actually infect that many people; quarantines and other actions taken to control outbreaks of a virus can bring down the number of people a sick person infects-Can we treat this virus?
There aren’t any proven treatments for COVID-19, but there are dozens of studies underway to find some. One leading candidate is remdesivir, an antiviral medication originally developed to treat Ebola. There are clinical trials testing it in patients in China, in the US, and around the world. While there’s a lot of hype around the anti-malaria medication chloroquine, there’s still no evidence it — or any other drug — actually works.
Research teams and pharmaceutical companies are also working to develop a vaccine that can protect people from infection. However, vaccine development takes a long time. Even if everything goes smoothly, it will be around a year to 18 months before one is available, said Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Stay home as much as possible, especially if you’re feeling sick. Stay home even if you’re not feeling sick — evidence suggests people can be contagious even if they don’t have symptoms. Wash your hands, wipe down surfaces with disinfectant, and cover your mouth if you cough.
If you’re a young, healthy person, you might not feel very sick if you catch COVID-19. But if you don’t stay home and away from others, you could pass it on to someone older or with a chronic health condition, who is more likely to have a severe case of the disease.
One of the best ways to slow the spread of an outbreak is by staying away from other people, which is also called “social distancing.” That gives a virus less opportunity to jump from person to person. It’s why everyone is being asked to stay home. Those measures help blunt the impact of an outbreak by slowing the virus. If fewer people get sick at once, it’s easier for healthcare providers to give everyone good care-more.
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